Apr 08, 2025
TRU Capitalists,
Hello and welcome to another edition of the TRU Capital newsletter. March has been a jam packed month, not only for markets but also updates here at TRU Capital.
We are thrilled to announce that we will be speaking at Jets & Capital Saturday May 5th, 2025.
Driven by our unwavering dedication to empowering accredited investors, high-net-worth individuals, and family offices, we would be thrilled to have you attend.
If you're interested please please respond to this email and my assistant will get you the information for the private event.
In addition to speaking at events, our team has refreshed our website where you're able to read blogs on trucapital.fund, review a few recent trade wins and see the stats of our algorithmic technology.
We will be sending a recap post event, and as always if you'd like to invest along side us click the button below to book a time with our team.
In many ways, March has seen the best of times and the worst of times in digital assets. Institutions have never been more bullish, and retail has never been more bearish.
Trump established a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, the new stablecoin wars are heating up, and a $1.5B Ninjatrader acquisition is about to unleash [the] Kraken.
Let's dive in.
This tweet from Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan, whom we had the pleasure of meeting at Bitcoin Investor Week in NYC this month, summarizes the current divergence in sentiment between retail and institutional investors in the digital asset market.
This chart helps quantify the impact of this divergence.
As you can see, retail investors have been selling off their Bitcoin in the last few months, while whales and institutions are accumulating. The lesson here is to follow the smart money. Buy when others are fearful. If you're feeling fearful right now, you're probably over-focused on the short term and missing the big picture.
Stay focused. Zoom out. Don't panic.
We don't intend to start every newsletter with a recap of what President Trump has done in crypto, but he's doing a lot, and it's important, so let's review.
The Donald signed an Executive Order to establish a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and a U.S. Digital Asset Stockpile.
He hosted several leaders from the digital asset industry at the White House for the first ever Digital Asset Summit.
He called into The Blockworks Digital Asset Summit in New York (a different event). This marks the first time a sitting president has addressed a crypto conference. He reiterated his commitment to transforming the U.S. into a global Bitcoin superpower by integrating digital currency more deeply into the nation's financial framework.
The Trump-backed World Liberty Financial (WLFI) announced plans to launch USD1, a new stablecoin on Ethereum and Binance Smart Chain backed by U.S. Treasuries, dollar deposits, and cash equivalents custodied by BitGo.
BitGo is also our custody partner at TRU Capital, so we offer custodial security to our investors that is good enough for a President.
Finally, Crypto.com announced they're working with Trump to launch a suite of crypto ETF products.
We're not going to break these down line by line because there's too much to cover it all, but I will just say this is more proof of the Trump administration's firm commitment to digital assets in the United States, and this is very bullish overall for the industry. We're keeping an eye on how all of this develops. You should, too.
The US Treasury Department has officially lifted sanctions on Tornado Cash. This reverses a ban on the crypto mixing tool despite concerns over its use by terrorists and North Korean hackers. The move aligns with the Trump administration's broader efforts to position the US as a global leader in crypto regulation while maintaining a commitment to combating digital asset fraud.
This also goes along with the Trump administration's repeal of Biden's Operation Chokepoint 2.0 and a commitment to protecting freedom of speech in protocols and code. We hope Congress will codify rights to self-custody of digital assets in the near future as well.
After over four years and hundreds of millions of dollars in legal costs, the SEC's suit against Ripple is over. SEC won just $50M, and $XRP got a federal judge to rule that it is not a security.
Congratulations to Rpple and the $XRP army. Good riddance to bad Gensler.
Kraken is acquiring a US-based futures trading platform called NinjaTrader for $1.5 billion. This is the largest-ever deal (so far) bridging traditional finance and crypto. Kraken is moving to strengthen its position in the US futures market and multi-asset strategy, and this also reveals its plans to expand into equities trading and payments.
NinjaTrader's CFTC-registered license will allow Kraken to introduce crypto futures and derivatives in the US, and Kraken's international licenses will bring NinjaTrader's products to a global market.
Kraken is not alone. A lot of giants are lining up to do battle for the US digital asset retail marketplace and rushing to offer futures and derivatives trading for crypto and traditional assets all on one platform.
BlackRock and others have invested +$100M in FlowDesk, a digital assets-focused spot and derivatives platform in the US. Keep in mind that BlackRock is also partnering on a new exchange in Texas called TXSE.
Coinbase is in talks to buy Deribit, a digital assets-focused derivatives platform, to expand its product offering. Robinhood is moving heavily into digital assets to expand their retail business and just announced retail banking services as well.
There is a multi-billion dollar market up for grabs in the US now, and it's going to be interesting to see which one of these big players can establish dominance. We expect further mergers, acquisitions, and an all-out fight to win market share.
As we've highlighted before, the real-world assets (RWA) sector is rapidly growing. It recently reached an all-time high of $10.2 billion in TVL driven by institutional participation and improved regulatory clarity.
Dubai's recent real estate tokenization initiative and Ondo's partnership with Mastercard underscore growing institutional engagement. BlackRock's onchain BUIDL fund also announced a bridge to Solana and has tripled in value in the last three weeks.
Another major driver of RWA growth has been private credit. Plume recently announced a partnership with Goldfinch to supercharge this product offering.
Investors see RWAs as the strongest bridge between traditional assets and DeFi. They offer more stable markets with the on-chain benefits of transparency and composability. TRU Capital is going to continue to highlight growth in RWAs in the digital assets space as we see this as one of the most bullish sectors in the industry. Do not ignore this.
Ethena Labs and Securitize partnered to launch an EVM layer one blockchain called Converge, which will seek to offer institutions and retail access to DeFi. It's also a place for institutions to launch smart contracts and then port them over to public blockchain ecosystems.
Converge will launch with several established Defi products, including Ethereal, Morpho, Maple Labs, Pendle, and Aave Labs’ Horizon.
This approach stands in contrast to Coinbase's recently accounted Verified Liquidity Pools. These also seek to bring retail and institutions together in DeFi, but this approach builds KYC/AML compliance into the application layer instead of directly into the Layer One (Converge) itself.
Obviously, there are a lot of trade-offs between these two approaches, but again, the important thing here is not to try to pick winners or losers at this early stage. The main thing is to watch closely as these massive players try to serve emerging demands in the digital asset market. Institutions are coming to DeFi. We'll keep you informed as this develops as well.
As we've also noted before, stablecoins are the main focus of this administration, and for good reason. Tether's purchase of $33.1 billion in U.S. Treasury bonds in 2024 makes it the seventh-largest buyer. $USDT has overtaken countries like Canada, Mexico, and Germany. Tether announced that they are seeking a full audit from one of the big four US accounting firms.
This comes as stablecoin balances hit record highs - meaning that there is a huge amount of dry powder on the sidelines waiting to be deployed.
We expect to see movement in the market one way or the other following Trump's Tarriff deadline of April 2nd. Watch this date closely for signal about how the market is going to react. But regardless, eventually, much of this capital will make its way back into Bitcoin and digital assets.
In response to The United States pushing to expand and encorse USD stablecoins for global adoption, the rest of the world's fiat central bankers are freaking out. They are terrified that the US dollar will pull all of the demand for their currencies out of the market.
As such, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde announced that the EU would be fast-tracking the roll-out of its central bank digital euro. Their targeted launch date is October of this year. The People's Bank of China has also announced plans to increase efforts to push for the international adoption of its digital yuan.
Make no mistake, this is a matter of extreme geopolitical and economic importance to all nations. The United States has an advantage but will have to move quickly to continue to maintain or even expand the dominance of the dollar.
This seems like a great opportunity to remind everyone that Bitcoin is a way to escape the tyranny of fiat, no matter which nation's currency you hold.
Last week, Bitcoin saw increased demand in Turkish markets following growing political unrest. On March 19, there was a surge of buying pressure that pushed BTC-TRY volumes higher after the arrest of Istanbul’s mayor, a key political rival to President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.
There has been a sustained and growing interest in Bitcoin and digital assets in Turkey as traders seek refuge amid rising uncertainty. This trend has only accelerated, which demonstrates Bitcoin's ongoing use case as a safe-haven asset in times of political instability.
The lesson here is that it's wise to allocate to Bitcoin when times are good so that you don't have to panic buy Bitcoin if or when you're desperate for it.
We don't usually single out specific assets to write bullish news on, but the entire market is wrong about Ethereum and grossly undervaluing the $ETH asset. ETH whales know this and have been accumulating for the last two years despite sideways price action.
In a hugely bullish move, the Ethereum Foundation recently endorsed and partially funded Etherealize, a New York-based startup dedicated to integrating financial institutions with the Ethereum blockchain. Etherealize was co-founded by former bond trader Vivek Raman and long-time Ethereum developer Danny Ryan.
At the Digital Asset Summit, Vivek hosted a panel about Ethereum featuring Ethereum co-founder and ConsenSys CEO, Josh Lubin, and BlackRock's Head of Digital Assets, Robbie Mitchnik.
During the discussion, Mitchnik said concern surrounding the Ethereum blockchain has been “overdone.”
“There’s a lot to be optimistic about...When you look at our experience, take BUIDL as an example; there was no question that the blockchain that we would start our tokenisation on would be Ethereum.”
This gesture of confidence in Ethereum and Etherealize directly from BlackRock should not be dismissed. I know Robbie personally. He's one of the smartest people in the entire industry. He chooses when and what to say very carefully. This is a signal to the entire market that Ethereum is the public blockchain of choice for institutional finance. Retail may not fully understand the significance of this yet, but eventually, the market will reprice $ETH accordingly.
We wanted to call this out specifically because, to me, this was the biggest news coming out of the Digital Asset Summit.
A word on macro.
The Federal Reserve unanimously voted to hold rates at 4.25%-4.5% and repeated its projection of two rate cuts this year. Chairman Powell stressed the need for consistent data ("serial readings") while assessing the still unfolding economic impact of President Trump's policies. Powell suggested that tariff-related inflation could be considered "transitory," which triggered everyone who remembers how wrong he was the last time he used that word.
My summary of all of this is that they have no idea what's going to happen, so they're going to wait and see just like the rest of us.
Some people think we'll have a sharp but brief recession, and some people think we'll be back to money printing and bull runs again soon. Regardless, on the other side of this uncertainty is going to be the biggest bull run in digital assets ever. Tru Capital plans to be in on it when it comes.
GameStop has announced plans to add Bitcoin to its balance sheet. The company currently has more than $4B of cash. This could bring a lot of attention to Bitcoin from Roaring Kitty and his infamous gang of degen stonk traders. Player two has entered the chat. Buckle up.
It's the best of times, it's the worst of times.
There has never been a more pro-crypto government than the Trump administration, and yet the impact of his policies has created uncertainty that has depressed bullish price action in crypto.
There has never been more institutional adoption and engagement with digital assets, and retail has gotten more bearish than they were after the FTX collapse.
Times like these can feel schizophrenic. Investors are beset by fear, uncertainty, and doubt. In times like these, it pays to have a partner who can remind you of what's true.
We're going higher.
This is TRU Capital.
We believe capital is value, cryptography is truth, and Truth is priceless. "Buy the truth, and sell it not" - Proverbs 23:23 KJV
HODL,
The General Partners of TRU Capital
P.S. If you'd like to allocate to TRU Capital Fund 1, click here to book your time and allocate today.
Robert J Miller
Founder and General Partner, TRUCapital.Fund
Fundamental and Thesis Driven Digital Asset Investing for Investors.
John Gillen
Head of Fundamental Analysis and Market Research, TRUCapital.Fund
Fundamental and Thesis Driven Digital Asset Investing for Investors.
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This website is operated by TRU Capital Management, LLC TRU Capital Management, LLC. does not give or offer any business advice, investment advice, tax or legal advice to anyone using this website. Use of this website is not an offerby TRU Capital Management, LLC to solicit, sell or make an offer to buy any investment interest or securities. No federal or state securities commission or any other regulatory body has endorsed, guaranteed or approved of the information or materials on the website. Investment opportunities described or referenced on this website are meant only forAccredited Investors as defined in the Securities Act of 1933 and who understand and acknowledge the risks associated with private investments. TRU Capital Management, LLC does not make any recommendations regarding theappropriateness of any particular opportunities for any Investor or endorse any such opportunities. Investment opportunities referenced or linked on the website areexempt offerings of unregistered securities which are not publicly traded and aresubject to holding period requirements or other restrictions on transfer. As such, they are not suitable for investors who need or are expecting a short-term investment. In accessing this website and any pages or services thereof, you agree to be bound by TRU Capital Management, LLC’s Privacy Policy and Terms of Use .CONFIDENTIALITY NOTICE - This document and all contents herein are regarded asconfidential, proprietary, and legally privileged. All information is provided pursuant to an assertion and expectation of privacy and confidentiality. If you are not the expressly intended recipient or you do not assent to and agreed to keep all content herein private and confidential, you are hereby notified that you must not read this transmission and that any disclosure, copying, printing, distribution or use of any ofthe information contained herein is STRICTLY PROHIBITED. If you are in possession of this document, but are not the expressly intended recipient of this document, please immediately notify the sender and delete the original email and all content.
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